Unpacking The Sell Off

Digital assets have kicked off June with some fireworks – Bitcoin has fallen circa -15% and Ethereum -12% in the first week or so of trading. 

In previous Squawks we’ve touched on how macro factors like US exchange-traded funds (ETFs) might add to sell side pressure as they neared break-even prices. This inflection point, when Bitcoin was at US $82k, proved to be a short-term ceiling, as since then we’ve seen three back-to-back weeks of net ETF selling. And this week looks likely to make it the fourth. 

We also spoke about how market structure may also be impacted by weakening consumer sentiment (have a read/watch here if you missed). After reading, it explains why the economic data released this week of stronger jobs and manufacturing in the US just makes things more problematic.  

So, one could argue there are really a few things working against the market. 

In a special ‘no chart of the week’ edition of the Squawk, we’re going to look at all of the technical charts and throw some ideas and potential scenarios that may lie ahead; bullish and bearish.  

Let’s dig in.  

Bitcoin: Bullish or Bearish?

Let's start off with the OG. Looking at timing, we can compare how this market cycle’s all-time highs stack up against previous cycles.  

As always, this is a look at historical data – not a prediction of what’s to come – but we can see a trend emerging from this chart: it has taken 12 months in the last two cycles and 14 months in 2015 for the cycle bottom to form. If we follow that line of thinking, does that mean we could see the market continue to trade lower into quarter 4 of 2026?  

Now let’s look at how price has moved. This is looking Bitcoin from another perspective, using the February highs and lows rather than the entire cycle’s.  

What we can take from this is that the market saw far more sellers than buyers as we broke above the February high (at a touch over $80k USD), with prices moving sharply in recent days toward the February low. According to Coinglass data, liquidations on derivative exchanges globally showed a marked rise in this period, at levels not seen since January this year. So, this week’s move to the downside is perhaps comparable to January (when BTC’s price was still near $100k USD) as an impactful market repositioning.  

From here, we are waiting to see if Bitcoin’s prices make it close to or below the February lows. Then it's a matter of whether we observe a similar move that we saw at the Feb highs and we see a reversal build back higher. Or, if we see the bottom of this channel lose further support, and we look to set a new low for the year of 2026.  

This is a technical schematic for price I’ll be paying close attention to – if the time comes.  

So overall, history would suggest that lower could be on the cards and that there is more time left in this bear market. But this is the first Bitcoin cycle where we have seen adoption and accessibility improve through ETFs.  

Could this mean a bear market looks different than the past? At the time of writing, BTC’s fall from its cycle high (circa –50%) is much smaller than its previous average of approximately -80%. 

Or is this a sign we have further to fall, and we are just going to have to get comfy with these moves lower for a few more months.  

What's your take?