)
)
Key Takeaways
Quarterly close landing next week for markets, likely to be down from Bitcoin’s yearly open price of circa US$87,600.
Exchange-traded funds had a net positive month in March, breaking a current four-month streak of more sellers than buyers.
Chart of the week: Previous Bitcoin quarterly performance
Next week brings with it the end of the first quarter of 2026 and we’ll get to see where the bulls and bears want to finish up this milestone. That matters, because it’ll be the quarter-end itself that could be a reference point for assessing the first leg of a pattern we have seen after previous major tops.
More on that soon...
The first chapter of the year has been marked by new sources of volatility, with energy markets, oil and the tensions in the Middle East paired with recession concerns (again).
We don’t pose ourselves as political correspondents, so we’ll stick to what we know. And what we know is that crypto markets feel these periods of global volatility extra hard. We saw this in the trade wars of 2025, and now again in 2026.
One thing I believe will be key to observe in the quarters ahead is how long this could all drag on for. We’ve seen how quickly narratives can shift, tones flip, and certain presidents can walk back on threats that result in the market sentiment getting some kind of relief.
It is unclear to all of us how long the current, complex geopolitical space might drag on for. So for now, let's dig into what we do know.
ETF Flows
Amid the negativity, there could be a positive shift in the data with March data so far to be tracking towards a net positive month for Bitcoin ETFs (at the time of writing). March might be the first net positive month for Bitcoin since October 2025, meaning more Bitcoin was bought than sold through this investment vehicle.
)
The ETF cohort matters because it represents genuine spot demand. Unlike derivatives traders, who are mostly taking exposure to Bitcoin’s price, ETF buyers bring fresh capital into the market and directly influence underlying spot flows. That makes them a far more important source of marginal demand. And as we saw in those red months, it also drives selling pressure more meaningfully. Which makes it another factor to watch if we do see more selling activity start to surface again.
So, as I mentioned at the top of this article, it’s time to think about this quarterly close, and compare it to what we have seen in the past.
Chart of the week: Previous Bitcoin quarterly performance
Below is a chart of Bitcoin, with each candle representing a quarter of performance. Bitcoin has often spent four to five quarters digesting major tops, so this quarter-end gives the market its first real checkpoint – compared to historical movements.
)
Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results, but the Q1 2026 close may offer a useful reference point for whether this cycle is continuing to follow a similar pattern or beginning to diverge from it.
If Bitcoin were to track the duration of previous cycle tops, it could suggest there is still more time left in this reset before a clear bottom forms. On that basis, the market could be entering ‘the middle’ phase of a bear cycle, rather than approaching its end.
Using prior periods only as a reference point, that would imply a possible bottoming window somewhere between October 2026 and January 2027.
What do you think? Does this quarter’s close look more like a standard cycle reset, with a potential duration of 4-5 quarters (12-15 months) or is this something structurally different?