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Key Takeaways
Fear and Greed Index falls to 9 this week, as Bitcoin flashes prices not seen since the late stages of 2024.
IBIT ETF hit peak outflows on January 30th, at around the average cost basis of investors.
Chart of the week: Bitcoin ETF Average Inflow Cost Basis
Fear and Greed index is at 9, and Bitcoin is back…to levels we haven’t visited since 2024. The previous two weeks have closed red, and BTC is now trading approximately -50% below the all-time highs of last October.
So, what are the potential price points of interest?
That’s what we’re going to dive into this week, with a particular focus on US Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs) for spot Bitcoin. There’s some very interesting data to unpack – let’s dig in.
Current Flows
It’s not a shocking revelation that while BTC’s price has been falling, US Bitcoin ETFs have been net sellers.
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The past two weeks of trading have seen only two days of positive volume, culminating in approximately $2.6 billion USD in outflows.
But what has been interesting to see is the change in behaviour in IBIT's – the most-traded spot ETF in the world – flows, compared to the rest of the market. On the 30th of January 2026 we experienced the largest outflow in IBIT since the 20th of January. Meanwhile, everyone else in the ETF space remained flat or minor net buyers.
Now, why would that be the case?
Well, let’s look at some on-chain data to interrogate what’s going on behind the curtains here.
Chart of the week: Bitcoin ETF Average Inflow Cost Basis
This week’s chart comes from _checkonchain; if you’re a fan of on-chain data or just starting with technical analysis, they may be worth checking out.
Below, we are going to look under the hood of on-chain transactions from US ETFs.
The average buy price for each Bitcoin ETF is an interesting way to think about the institutional demand that has been a common theme since the products’ launch in 2024. The idea we’re exploring here is that, as the market becomes more fearful and investors get closer to breakeven or losses on their investments, the psychological pressure may become a catalyst for further selling.
The current average buy values since March 2024 on the chart are as follows (in USD):
IBIT - $80,509
FBTC - $58,945
ARKB - $41,657
True market mean: $80,093
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Now to tie this back to IBIT specifically.
On Jan 30, IBIT saw its biggest outflow day right as Bitcoin's price was nearing investors' average buy price for the ETF (their cost basis). You could almost think of it as a pain threshold for investors. This aligns with the theory that institutional investors may sell as their positions start sinking underwater.
And what’s telling is we saw net buying the two days after, when Bitcoin's price did fall under this net cost basis for IBIT.
So, this analysis presents two possible scenarios; now that we’re under the true market cost basis across ETFs, will we see buyers return in force, and sellers subside?
Or, will selling pressure grow, and could we eventually test the average spot holders of FBTC (the second-highest volume BTC ETF) at $58k USD next?
Keeping an eye on ETF flows could be a way to keep tabs on institutional sentiment at these key price levels.
See you all again next time.