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Swyftx Squawk 🦜 Relief Rally or Market Shift?

4 minPav HundalPav Hundal

Key Takeaways

  • Bitcoin and several altcoins have started 2026 off in the green.  

  • Some altcoins flashed double-digit gains in the last seven days.  

  • Bitcoin Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) saw the largest period of outflows in Nov-Dec 2025, so is the recent buying temporary? 

  • Chart of the week: Stablecoin Dominance 

The year has barely had a chance to have its second coffee, and the mood has already shifted.  

Bitcoin is green. Many altcoins are up double digits in just a week. After months of fatigue, you can understand why short-term sentiment might be starting to lift. 

But there’s a big question lingering: Is this just a relief rally, or the beginning of a broader trend shift? 

Let’s slow it down, unpack some data and sift through what we know so far.

Institutional selling eases to open 2026 

Straight off the bat, a data point worth highlighting is Bitcoin ETF flows. While flows aren’t aggressively positive yet, they have started the year off in the black. 

November and December 2025 marked the longest stretch of sustained ETF outflows since products launched. A staggering US $4.5 billion exited these ETF products during this period.  

And while the year is still fresh, so far there has been more demand for buying than selling.  

I’ll be continuing to watch these flows after this recent flurry in the markets, to understand if this arm of the market will continue to bid. Or, do we see a similar red-tinge in flows as we move into the middle of January, the broader market may slow down again.  

With that in mind, let’s take a look at stablecoin dominance.  

Chart of the week: Stablecoin Dominance 

We covered this chart towards the end of last year, and I thought it would be fitting to revisit it after the rally we have just seen.   

As a refresher, stablecoin dominance measures how much capital in crypto is sitting on the sidelines, parked in USDT and USDC rather than deployed into Bitcoin, Ethereum or altcoins. When it rises, it can mean that investors are stepping back, waiting and preserving capital. 

Source: Tradingview – USDT + USDC Dominance (black), Bollinger Band (blue)

Stablecoin dominance rose sharply in Q4, but there was a notable drop that occurred around Christmas Eve. Is this most recent drop just a breather before the uptrend continues, and selling pressures return? Or is this the start of a new cycle? 

The coming days and weeks will matter, and I’ll be watching this chart closely. 

See you all again next time.  

 

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