Bitcoin Miners Feeling the Squeeze

In the face of volatility, we are seeing marginal buyers for crypto stepping in with the week's ETF inflows trending positive.  

While we remain unsure on which direction oil is going next, and how long the tensions in the Middle East will continue, there are still some things we do know are true about crypto.  

In this week’s edition of the Squawk, we're going to dive into some of the trends and news items that you might have missed among the noise.  

Let's dig in. 

Corporate buyers lead the way 

Strategy, led by Michael Saylor, continued its Bitcoin accumulation as it added another 17,994 BTC last week. Bitmine also disclosed that it added 60,976 ETH over the same period. Tom Lee, CIO of Fundstrat and chairman of Bitmine, came out  stating on stage during Consensus Hong Kong that he believes we are nearing the end of a 'mini crypto winter'.  

On top of this, ETF flows for Bitcoin kicked off the week in the green, with Farside reporting approximately $400m USD of net inflows on Monday and Tuesday (US time). 

That does not mean price has to turn around immediately, nor is it a prescription to follow in their footsteps. But it does tell you that conviction among certain corporations has not disappeared. There is still capital willing to lean into the market. 

Aside from the long-term view of institutions, another narrative has reared its head that may prove favourable: A major milestone event for Bitcoin.   

The last 1,000,000  

Just last week, Bitcoin passed a remarkable milestone – more than 20 of its fixed 21 million coins have now been mined. That leaves the world with less than 1 million BTC to be issued, with the final coins expected to arrive around 2140 under the Bitcoin blockchain’s fixed issuance schedule. 

This is a reminder that, while the market for BTC will always ebb-and-flow, the intrinsic fundamentals of the Bitcoin network haven’t changed. There can only ever be 21 million BTC and there will be less created every halving. (For a quick breakdown of the tech behind the headlines, check out our 5-minute Learn article on how it all works.) 

So while geopolitical and macroeconomic factors continue to have their say on crypto price action, it’s worthwhile stepping back and remembering the protocol's original design. While market sentiment can be unpredictable, the network’s supply mechanics remain a core component of Bitcoin’s case. 

While we’re on the topic of Bitcoin fundamentals, let’s throw over to a cyclical indicator to give us another perspective on what may lie ahead.  

Chart of the week: Puell Multiple, lower to go? 

Think of the Puell Multiple as a stress gauge for Bitcoin miners. It compares how much money miners are making from newly mined Bitcoin today versus what they’ve typically made over the last 365 days. 

Now, I can hear you asking, ‘Why does this matter?’  

Well, miners are one cohort with regular exposure to Bitcoin that are naturally sellers. They have power bills, hardware costs, and operating expenses, so when they mine Bitcoin, a chunk of it usually ends up getting sold.  

The Checkonchain graphic below shows this indicator with a standard deviation banding, and can showcase periods where supply-side profitability is stretched.  

While capital is being deployed back into the market by some of the bigger players such as Strategy, the Puell Multiple currently indicates that miner revenue is compressed relative to its yearly average. Historically, BTC market bottoms have taken time to develop while the Puell sits within this zone.  

It's also worth noting this is the first time a divergence has occured between the indicator and Bitcoin’s price since the latter stages of 2025. This suggests that while we may be approaching a structural floor, the market might still be in a phase of consolidation rather than a full trend reversal and breakout.  

See you all again next time.