Key Takeaways
- XRP and BNB leading, as Bitcoin trades flat in the last seven days.
- Headline inflation metrics in the US land above expectations.
- Impactful data point to watch heading into the end of February.
A big week of headlines and events, particularly out of the US, have netted very little change in Bitcoin’s price.
Bitcoin is down 0.1% at the time of writing in the last seven-days, while altcoins such as XRP and BNB are showing double-digit gains.
Bitcoin has struggled to make new year-to-date highs in the current state of global conditions. In contrast, global indices in the UK (FTSE100) and China (CSI300) have continued to make new year-to-date highs.
Mixed Messages & Above Expected Results
Fed Chair Jerome Powell mentioned earlier this week at a sSenate banking enquiry that the current state of monetary policy does not require easing conditions, as the economy remains strong and the 2% target for inflation is key.
However, he has referenced that unexpected moves in the labour market or a significant cooling of inflation could change the committee’s mind.
“If the labor market were to weaken unexpectedly or inflation were to fall more quickly than anticipated, we can ease policy accordingly.”
On this point, headline metrics for inflation landed above expectations this week.
On Tuesday, Consumer Price Index (CPI) printed 3.0% exceeded forecasts. A 0.1% rise from the previous month.
Overnight the Producers Price Index (PPI) landed hot as well at 3.5% year-on-year. This figure remains unchanged from the previous month and represents the inflation burden on producers in the US.
Overall, the latest round of data indicates that inflation hasn’t continued to drop.
Key data to come
On the last day of February the US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) data will provide further clarity towards the state of monetary policy heading into next month.
PCE is the leading indicator used by the policy committee to measure inflation.
Fear and greed currently reads 40 – neutral.
Bitcoin Analysis
The price of Bitcoin is currently trading within the January high and low range, and on the Bollinger band we are entering a period where the upper and bottom channel is compressing.
Bullish Scenario
In the coming days, price may see a sharp move higher as the Bollinger Bands tighten. If bulls regain control and reclaim the monthly open, they could push toward last month’s high.
Bearish Scenario
With this compression in the Bollinger Bands, we could also see volatility moving price to the downside. This may result in prices heading towards the January low.
💱 Swyftx Flows
The buy-to-sell ratio for unique Swyftx orders is nominally >$20,000 AUD (rolling data over the last 7 days, captured at 09:00 am AEST).
Disclaimer: The information on Swyftx Learn is for general educational purposes only and should not be taken as investment advice, personal recommendation, or an offer of, or solicitation to, buy or sell any assets. It has been prepared without regard to any particular investment objectives or financial situation and does not purport to cover any legal or regulatory requirements. Customers are encouraged to do their own independent research and seek professional advice. Swyftx makes no representation and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the content. Any references to past performance are not, and should not be taken as a reliable indicator of future results. Make sure you understand the risks involved in trading before committing any capital. Never risk more than you are prepared to lose. Consider our Terms of Use and Risk Disclosure Statement for more details.
