Key Takeaways
- The US Inflation figure is now back at 2021 levels.
- Interest rate drops forecasted in the US for next week.
- Bitcoin reclaims its current range, mapping out what could come next.
Bitcoin kicked off the week strong with a four-day rally starting on Sunday, though it faced a surge in volatility overnight. The latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) data was released, causing Bitcoin to drop nearly 2% within two hours. However, prices quickly rebounded, rallying 4.5%, with Bitcoin now trading at $58,300 USD.
US Inflation returns to 2021 levels
US inflation metrics landed as expected, with the forecast of year-on-year inflation dropping from 2.9% to 2.5%, standing on track for the Fed’s 2% target rate.
Inflation in the US has now hit measurements not seen since April 2021.
More impactful data will land next week
We lead into a major news week in the US, with the next interest rate decision to be released on Thursday 12th at 4am AEST. The current forecast is set for a 0.25% drop, which would land a new funding rate of 5.25%. If successful, this will be the first-rate drop in over four years. Futures markets are also expecting the possibility of a 0.5%-0.75% decrease.
Fear and greed currently reads 34.
Bitcoin Analysis
In the last week, we have successfully seen the current range we have been tracking be breached on the lows and reclaimed. This now poises the market for the next critical decision.
Bullish Scenario
Having seen buyers step in at these recent range lows, the bulls need to push further to solidify their presence. Closing above $57,906 USD will create a new higher-high.
Bearish Scenario
If bulls remain squeamish for the remainder of September, we could still see current momentum fade into the week, especially as prices move back towards previous highs and the middle of this current range at $59,000 USD.
💱 Flows
The buy-to-sell ratio for unique Swyftx orders is nominally >$20,000 AUD (rolling data over the last 7 days, captured at 09:00 am AEST).
📣 Upcoming Announcements
Thursday 19/09/24
- 04:00am AEST – US FOMC – Federal Funding Rate
- FOMC members vote on where to set future targets for interest rates, and announce any changes to current rates. Interest rates are important for currency valuation.
- Expected: 5.25%
- Previous: 5.50%
- FOMC members vote on where to set future targets for interest rates, and announce any changes to current rates. Interest rates are important for currency valuation.
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