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Squawk 11.07.24 🦜

Key takeaways

  • Bitcoin Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) are back buying, above their benchmark average.  
  • Solana ETF decision predicted for March 2025.  
  • Technical analysis for Bitcoin heading into the weekend.  

The German government is nearing the conclusion of its significant Bitcoin sell-off, a move that has been closely watched by the crypto community. A once $3 billion US dollar balance currently sits at $895 million US.  

Demand for the Bitcoin ETFs in the US has also returned, with the last three sessions averaging just over $200 million US in inflows which is above the $125 million US all-time daily average.  

At the time of writing, Bitcoin is up 2.95% since the weekly open on Monday. However, there is more to come this week, with major inflation data out of the US landing tonight.  

Next macroeconomic catalyst 

We have two major inflation metrics to come. Tonight, the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) will be released at 10:30 pm AEST. The expectation is for a 0.1% increase in the month-on-month reading.  

Tomorrow, the Producer Price Index (PPI), where 0.1% is expected. PPI measures the change in the price of finished goods and services producers sell. While CPI measures the change in prices of goods and services for consumers.  

Results outside expectations on either of these key metrics of inflation could result in market volatility.  

Fear and greed currently reads 29; last month this figure read 74.  

Bitcoin Analysis 

Bitcoin continues to hold steady at the previous month’s lows, as shown below. Continuing to use these monthly levels as a framework, below are two potential scenarios. 

Source – TradingView 

Bullish Scenario 

Bulls continue to defend at these lows, and we start to see a move towards the monthly mid-range of $66,000 USD.   

Bearish Scenario 

Failure to garner any interest from buyers could see prices slump back towards the previous recent lows under $54,000 USD.  

Swyftx Flows 

The buy-to-sell ratio for unique Swyftx orders is nominally > $20,000 AUD (rolling data over the last 7 days, captured at 09:00 am AEST). 

📰 In the News 

Bloomberg analyst Eric Balchunas predicts that a decision on the Solana Exchange-Traded Fund (ETF) could come by March 2025. 

Balchunas said, “The approval of a Solana ETF would be a game-changer, potentially driving more mainstream adoption and investment in the cryptocurrency sector”. This also opens the door for speculation on what could be the next digital asset to warrant and ETF listing. 

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