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Onchain Analysis: Long-Term HODLers

Long-Term Holder supply is punching to new all-time-highs, which is both expected, and great to see playing out. This comes alongside Gold testing new ATHs, bank stocks in the US in freefall, and Bitcoin prices remaining remarkably strong. 

The world is getting pretty tense. Both the Fed and the RBA hiked rates this week, although I am sure they left the press conferences and went to have a cold shower. I sure wouldn’t want their job right now, as they are dealing with an impossibly difficult situation. 

Regional bank stocks in the USA have seen massive stock price declines in recent weeks, as a seemingly endless bank-walk of deposits leave, and head to higher yielding pastures in US treasuries, and money markets. This relentless digital decline in deposits, coupled with the US regulators handing First Republic at a great discount to JPMorgan gives little incentive for the big banks, to save the small banks. 

Gold is in the process of rallying and retesting all-time highs vs the USD, and set a convincing one against the AUD today. However, our beloved Bitcoin continues to outperform, as the chart below shows. Orange bars indicate 30-day periods where BTC outperforms gold, and the red trace is the XAU/BTC ratio. 

The demand for hard money remains well and truly intact

Meanwhile, BTC Long-Term Holder Supply is ripping to new ATHs also, getting up to 14.34M BTC (74% of supply). These are coins held off exchanges, but dormant for at least 155-days and statistically the least likely to spend. The chart below shows that the threshold age is just after the FTX doom candle, and we know for sure that LOTS of coins changed hands down here. 

So my expectation is that this chart will continue to rock and roll north. Whilst this is technically looking at past demand, it is also demonstrating a strong willingness to HODL on. Folks simply are not parting ways with their coins just yet.

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