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Market Conditions Could be Ripe for a Big Move

7-day recap

Bitcoin has been very uneventful and moving sideways within a tight range for the past 11 days. Over this period, the price of Bitcoin has been ranging between $17,424 and $16,678 USD, with volatility dropping to low levels.  

Additionally, the Bollinger bands, which are a technical analysis indicator used to measure the volatility, are getting tighter. This begs the question that given there has not been as much volatility to either the upside or the downside, could this mean the market is gearing up for a big move either side.  

This low range could indicate investors are waiting in anticipation for the US Macro data to be released this week before acting. This data could be the catalyst needed to kick BTC out of this low volatility range, however, even if this were to occur, the direction is still yet to be determined.  

Market outlook

It’s all about US Macro news over the coming days. This week could be a key moment for asset prices in the rest of 2022, as investors prepare for the last Federal Reserve (Fed) meeting of the year, following a key inflation report tonight.   

The US consumer price index (CPI) reports have been known to cause significant swings in markets this year, with the S&P 500 moving an average of around 3% in either direction over the past six CPI releases, compared with an average daily move of about 1.2% over the same period.  

Stronger-than-expected economic data has raised concerns that the Fed will need to keep interest rates higher for longer to combat inflation, which could lead to a recession.  

The future price movements in both equities and crypto may depend on whether tonight’s CPI report indicates inflation is responding to the Fed’s rate hikes. Hotter-than-expected data could increase fears of more Fed hawkishness, which could pressure equities and crypto. 

Coin watch: XRP 

The US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and Ripple Labs have jointly requested a deadline in relation to sealing information in their legal battle. Attorneys for both sides are asking US District Judge Analisa Torres to set a deadline of 4 January 2023 for non-parties to file applications to seal any summary judgment materials. The parties propose to file any objections to these applications by 18 January 2023. The parties have separately sought a summary judgment in the case in their favour. Ripple was sued by the SEC in late 2020, with allegations that the firm had sold its XRP cryptocurrency as an unregistered security.  

In addition, Charles Hoskinson, the creator of Cardano, has said that he has heard rumours that Ripple’s lawsuit with the SEC will come to a conclusion this week – the 15th of December 2022 

$XRP price hasn’t moved much off the recent speculation, with price continuing to bounce off a key support level around $0.37-0.38 USD.  

In September 2022, the price of XRP went up over 70% in a matter of days off the back of some positive news that the parties were both pushing for a summary judgment with the facts before the court. If the speculation and rumours of an imminent court case conclusion are true, we could see some large moves for XRP. However, which way those swings go will be dependent on the court’s ruling. 

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