Key Takeaways
- Monthly and quarterly closes at the end of this week.
- US Policymakers solidify the reality of interest rate cuts.
- US GDP and Inflation data to impact markets over the next two days.
After a breakout on Friday last week, we now find Bitcoin trading just above last week’s open price of $58,480 USD.
Why the breakout?
This move may have been influenced by a key announcement out of the US, with the Federal Reserve Chair, Jerome Powell, publicising for the first time publicly that rate cuts are coming.
“The time has come for policy to adjust. The direction of travel is clear, and the timing and pace of rate cuts will depend on incoming data, the evolving outlook, and the balance of risks.” Jerome Powell, Kansas City Fed’s annual economic conference in Jackson Hole, Wyoming.
Bitcoin specifically moved 5.2% between the time of the announcement and the daily close at 10 am AEST on Saturday.
Macro events left for the week
The latest US Gross Domestic Product (GDP) figures will be released tonight at 10:30 pm AEST. Current expectations are for 2.8%, a repeat of last month’s figure.
Friday at 10:30pm AEST will bring the latest leading metric for inflation in the US: Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE). This metric describes the change in the price of goods and services purchased by consumers. The forecast is for 0.2%, again a mirror of last month’s figure.
As Jerome Powell stated, the pace of rate cuts will depend on incoming data, which is why these data results are impactful.
Fear and greed currently reads 45.
Bitcoin Analysis
After the explosive move towards the back end of last week, Bitcoin has now retraced the move entirely.
Bullish Scenario
Back at the previous lows, where the breakout began last week, we could see some support from the bulls here to potentiate the next swing higher back towards $64,000 USD.
Bearish Scenario
With Bitcoin now trading back inside the current range identified above, we could see sellers continue to add pressure and move prices to the lows of $56,000 USD.
💱 Flows
The buy-to-sell ratio for unique Swyftx orders is nominally >$20,000 AUD (rolling data over the last 7 days, captured at 09:00 am AEST).
 📣 Upcoming AnnouncementsÂ
Thursday 29/08/24
- 10:30pm AEST – US Preliminary GDP q/qÂ
- The broadest measure of economic activity and the primary gauge of the economy’s healthÂ
- Expected: 2.8%Â
- Previous: 2.8%Â
- The broadest measure of economic activity and the primary gauge of the economy’s healthÂ
Friday 30/08/24
- 10:30pm AEST – US Core Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Price Index  Â
- The Federal Reserve’s primary inflation measure. Measurement of price of goods and services directly consumed by individuals. Gives important insights into consumer spending.  Â
- Expected: 0.2%Â
- Previous: 0.2%Â
- The Federal Reserve’s primary inflation measure. Measurement of price of goods and services directly consumed by individuals. Gives important insights into consumer spending.  Â
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