Key Takeaways
- Grayscale ETH ETF (ETHE) has now totalled over $800m USD in selling.
- Bitcoin price at the mid-point of a four month range.
- US economic growth data releases tonight, and inflation metrics tomorrow night.
The newly launched Ethereum Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs) in the US saw a strong start, achieving $1 billion in trade volume on the first day. Key buyers included Bitwise (ETHW) with $204 million and BlackRock (ETHA) with $266 million in net inflows.
However, we did witness large outflows from the Grayscale (ETHE) product with -$484m US yesterday and -326m US today. This could be due to its higher fees compared to newer ETF offerings.
A similar trend was observed with the Grayscale Bitcoin ETF, which also saw net outflows from January to May following its conversion.
The coming days and weeks will be crucial to understand if market demand can offset Grayscale’s selling and if this trend will continue.
Impactful Data Releases
Tonight, we have Advanced US GDP data releasing at 10:30pm AEST. The current expectations are for a 2.0% reading, with a previous reading of 1.4%.
Friday, we have inflation data, Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE), released at 10:30pm AEST. 0.2% is expected, and 0.1% was the previous result.
These data points may cause volatility, especially if results are to land outside of what the market expects.
Fear and greed currently reads 59.
Bitcoin Analysis
In fourteen days from the 8th of July, we have witnessed the market regain more than 50% of the range that Bitcoin has been trading in since March this year. Having now reached just above this multi-month midpoint, we are starting to see a general cooling off in price movements. Below is analysis looking at some key levels.
Source – TradingView
Bullish Scenario
Seeing bulls defend the previous lows (grey box) from last week, and we see a move back to the upside.
Bearish Scenario
Failure to hold these key lows, and continue to move higher in the coming days, could result in a further move lower. The monthly open just below price at $62,669 USD.
Flows
The buy-to-sell ratio for unique Swyftx orders is nominally >$20,000 AUD (rolling data over the last 7 days, captured at 09:00 am AEST).
📣 Upcoming Announcements
Thursday 25/07/24
- 10:30pm AEST – US Advanced GDP q/q
- The broadest measure of economic activity and the primary gauge of the economy’s health
- Expected: 1.4%
- Previous: 2.0%
- The broadest measure of economic activity and the primary gauge of the economy’s health
Friday 26/07/24
- 10:30pm AEST – US Core Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Price Index
- The Federal Reserve’s primary inflation measure. Measurement of price of goods and services directly consumed by individuals. Gives important insights into consumer spending.
- Expected: 0.2%
- Previous: 0.1%
- The Federal Reserve’s primary inflation measure. Measurement of price of goods and services directly consumed by individuals. Gives important insights into consumer spending.
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