Key Takeaways
- U.S. regulation remains a central force in shaping market direction, with the GENIUS Act and BITCOIN Act potentially setting the tone for broader crypto adoption.
- Spot ETF approvals in the U.S. beyond Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) are highly probable before year-end, according to prediction markets and industry experts. Solana (SOL) and XRP (XRP) are two notable contenders for ETF approvals. The level of market demand for these potential products is very unclear.
- Institutional adoption is gaining ground, with massive Bitcoin allocations from firms like Metaplanet, GameStop and Trump Media Group. This trend is increasingly blurring the lines between financial strategy and political influence.
Introduction
The crypto market is at an interesting point at the halfway mark of 2025. After a bearish Q1 and bullish Q2, high levels of uncertainty surrounding the global economy and geopolitics are clouding the market outlook for crypto. This report unpacks three potential catalysts that could meaningfully shape how the second half of the year unfolds for crypto.
1. U.S. Government and Regulatory Moves
Tariff updates and Trump’s Bitcoin plans
U.S. President Donald Trump’s tariffs, announced on April 2, marked a high point for tariff-related fear. Notably, they coincided with a local bottom in Bitcoin’s price. The subsequent tariff pauses are set to expire on July 9, and market sentiment could swing sharply depending on what decision is made.
Will the tariffs be enacted at the levels initially announced? Will new trade deals be struck? Will Trump announce a second pause? All of these questions will be widely discussed ahead of the crucial date of July 9.
U.S. President Trump announcing various tariffs on April 2. Source
Adding to the regulatory focus and tariff deadlines, the White House crypto advisory board is expected to deliver its recommendations to President Trump in early July. This presentation could shape the future stance on digital assets. However, it is also possible that the meeting may have limited impact, with the upcoming legislation potentially covering most of the major regulatory changes the U.S. government intends to make this year.
The BITCOIN Act
Proposed in 2024 and later amended to align with President Trump’s strategic Bitcoin reserve directive, the BITCOIN Act would establish a path for the U.S. government to acquire 250,000 Bitcoin annually over the next five years.
Crucially, this would be done without cost to the taxpayer, in line with Trump’s stated objective. It is speculated that some countries are already front-running this possibility (i.e. accumulating Bitcoin without announcing it). If passed, the act could trigger a global race among governments to accumulate Bitcoin for strategic purposes.
The GENIUS Act
The GENIUS Act passed the Senate earlier this month with strong bipartisan support. It introduces a comprehensive framework for stablecoins, covering reserve requirements, third-party audits and licensing obligations.
If passed by the House and signed into law, it would set a clear regulatory foundation for what many consider to be the most widespread use case of blockchain technology to date: stablecoins.
2. Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs)
Solana, XRP and Ethereum Staking ETFs
Following the launch of spot Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs in 2024, anticipation has been building around the potential for spot ETFs tied to other cryptocurrencies. ETFs linked to Solana (SOL) and XRP (XRP) are widely considered two of the leading contenders for securing the next spot ETF approval in the U.S.
Polymarket odds of ETF approvals this year for SOL and XRP, as of June 23, 2025. Source
Additionally, in the second half of this year, it’s possible that existing spot Ethereum ETFs gain support for staking. The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) is currently reviewing various amended applications from issuers requesting their ETFs gain staking functionality.
Should these spot Ethereum ETFs gain support for staking, they could unlock a new wave of demand from those wanting to gain exposure to ETH and earn staking rewards in a convenient and familiar way.
Will ETF approvals be bullish?
The success of the spot Bitcoin ETFs was obvious to many. However, the launch of the Ethereum ETF failed to generate the same level of fanfare or subsequent price growth in the underlying cryptocurrency. It remains to be seen whether the would-be approval of altcoin ETFs in 2025 will act as a major price catalyst.
3. Michael Saylor’s Strategy Copycats
More corporations are adopting Bitcoin-focused treasury strategies, following the lead of Michael Saylor’s Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy). This trend is a double-edged sword. On one hand, it may reflect a strong conviction in Bitcoin’s long-term potential. On the other hand, it risks becoming a bandwagon effect driven by price speculation.
Fuelling the trend is a growing list of companies allocating serious capital to Bitcoin. Metaplanet, often referred to as the ‘MicroStrategy of Asia’, has announced a $7.7 billion ($5 billion USD) acquisition strategy. GameStop has already secured $768 million ($500 million USD) worth of Bitcoin, with plans to scale up to $2 billion ($1.3 billion USD).
But the most eye-catching move comes from Trump Media Group, which is raising $3.8 billion ($2.5 billion USD) for Bitcoin purchases. With President Trump openly backing crypto, this alignment of political and corporate support has put Bitcoin in the spotlight like never before.
But it’s no longer just about Bitcoin. Groups like Solana Strategy are accumulating Solana, while on Ethereum, Sharplink Gaming has emerged with plans to acquire $730 million ($475m USD) worth of ETH. All these companies with long-term vision are locking up coins, easing future sell pressure across the crypto space.
Conclusion
The second half of 2025 presents a high-stakes environment for crypto markets. On the political and regulatory front, developments around tariffs, the GENIUS Act and the BITCOIN Act will likely sway market sentiment.
Potential altcoin ETF approvals in the U.S. will be another key storyline through the year-end. Should any be approved, will they drive demand for the underlying altcoin, or will they struggle for attention?
Meanwhile, a surge in institutional Bitcoin strategies from tech firms to political entities is signalling structural change. Whether this is a sign of long-term adoption or speculative froth will depend on how these moves play out.
Together, these regulatory, product and institutional shifts will shape whether crypto continues to build momentum or enters another consolidation phase.
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