Swyftx Squawk 🦜 Why October Matters, What Does That Data Say

Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies have had a rocky start to the new quarter. On October 1st, Bitcoin dropped by -3.9%, showing how unstable the market has been. 

Early this morning Bitcoins price tag below $60,000 US briefly, where it currently trades back above this value.   

Fear and greed currently reads 39 – Fear. 

Impactful US jobs data to come 

The rest of this week we have impactful jobs data coming out of the US starting tonight at 10:30pm AEST and again on Friday at 10:30pm AEST. With the focus moving away from inflation risks as was addressed in US Fed Chair Powell’s speech earlier this week the results of growth data in the coming weeks will be telling in future policy decisions.  

October Effect 

The month of October has held as a key battle ground period between bulls and bears in the past. 

October has traditionally been a positive month for Bitcoin, with an average return of +14%. It’s also the first month of Q4 and historically we can see that November has returned on average +40% and December +9% respectively on Bitcoin since 2011.  

While prior performance doesn’t guarantee future outcomes, it does set the stage for what is possible during this period.  

Bitcoin Analysis 

After an exlosive move to end September, Bitcoin has started the new quarter and month to the downside where we now find price hovering around the previous lows from where the most recent breakout started (blue box). Below are two possible outcomes from here.  

Bullish Scenario 

The previous lows (blue box) remains an active area of support where we see bulls continue to show their sponsorship back upwards.  

Bearish Scenario 

Little interest garnered here from the bulls, which could result in a further sell off back below $60,000 USD.  

💱 Flows 

The buy-to-sell ratio for unique Swyftx orders is nominally >$20,000 AUD (rolling data over the last 7 days, captured at 09:00 am AEST).  

📣 Upcoming Announcements 

Thursday 3/10/24 

•  10:30pm AEST – US Unemployment Claims 
  • The number of unemployment claims is an important signal of overall economic health because consumer spending is highly correlated with labour-market conditions. 
    • Expected: 222k 
    • Previous: 218k 

Friday 4/10/24 

• 10:15pm AEST – ADP Non-Farm Employment Change 
  • Job creation is an important leading indicator of consumer activity and spending. This leads to overall economic growth and activity.  
    • Expected: 148k 
    • Previous: 142k 
• 10:30pm AEST – US Unemployment Rate 
  • Helps paint a picture of the current economic health and conditions of the labour market. Correlated to future consumer spending, and impacts the overall monetary policy.  
    • Expected: 4.2% 
    • Previous: 4.2% 

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