Squawk 22.08.24 🦜 

This week marks the third consecutive week where Bitcoin has remained relatively flat overall, with today’s prices mirroring rates from 14 days ago.  However, turning to the macro backdrop, some global liquidity indicators have been on the move.  

Fear and greed currently reads 49. 

Global money supply on the rise  

M2 is an economic measure of how much money people can spend and save. When the M2 supply increases, it usually means more money is circulating, which can lead to economic growth and increase the risk of future inflation. 

The chart below snapshots the year-on-year change in combined Global M2 from major economies across the Eurozone, North America, South America, Pacific, and Asia regions.  

Source: TradingView – Global M2 Year-on-Year (YoY) % change.  

Notably, during 2020 we saw this M2 YoY metric grow higher in the same period we saw Bitcoin reach new all-time highs and altcoin valuations follow.  

We can also see that the declines in YoY M2 after 2021 align closely with the bear-mark period we witnessed in crypto.  

While levels have been steady since the start of April 2024, we have seen YoY growth start to break to new levels not seen since 2022. Currently, we have seen six weeks on consecutive growth in M2 YoY.  

Jobs in the spotlight 

Early Thursday morning, the latest round of meeting minutes from the Federal Open Markets Committee (FOMC) was publicised. These meetings are scheduled eight times a year and are responsible for voting on where interest rates are and should be in the future.  

Some key takeaways from the meeting minutes when compared to previous releases when looking at the language and tone used: 

• Job growth from ‘strong’ to now ‘moderate’ 
• Inflation from ‘elevated’ to ‘somewhat elevated’  

In previous meetings, policymakers have stated that keeping a close eye on weakening jobs data and on-track inflation are major markers before any rate drop could occur.  

As a reminder, the next interest rate decision in the US is approaching on September 18th.  

Bitcoin Analysis 

Bitcoin continues to be range-bound in the current range structure outlined below. We are also still under the 200-day moving average (blue line). 

Source – TradingView 

Bullish Scenario 

Over the coming days, bulls defend the current range lows may be how we begin to trend higher. And prices moving back above the 200-day moving average (blue line).  

Bearish Scenario 

Lack of interest here or seller control could result in further decline. We may see prices back towards the June low or lower.  

💱 Flows

The buy-to-sell ratio for unique Swyftx orders is nominally >$20,000 AUD (rolling data over the last 7 days, captured at 09:00 am AEST).  

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