Key Takeaways
- Bitcoin trading below $60,000 USD
- Overnight, US inflation metrics locks in four consecutive months of inflation
declining.- Bitcoin and Ethereum ETF Flows continue to remain steady.
After the storm of events last week, this week has potentially brought more of a cautious tone to the market, with Bitcoin currently trading only +0.22% higher since the weekly open at 10 am AEST on Monday.
Fear and greed currently reads 52.
Bitcoin and Ethereum ETF Flows Remain Buy-Side Bias.
This week so far has netted more buying than selling across all Bitcoin products collectively and Ethereum, however far below their all-time averages.
The Grayscale Ethereum product has notably reduced the selling pressure on the market, which had sold $1.6 billion USD over the first three days of the ETFs going live. Contrast that with the last three days where $47.9 million USD has been net outflows.
Inflation Deceleration
For the fourth consecutive month, year-on-year inflation in the US has declined, with a 2.9% actual reading landing last night when the market expected 3.0%.
This is timely, as the next interest rate decision in the US is approaching on September 18th. Data points like this are critical for decision-makers, especially with rising worries that the labour market waiting too long could jeopardise future economic growth.
Economic Calander Events
We have US retail sales data on Thursday at 10:30pm AEST, which may be more significant as concerns about consumer spending habits may change, with the unemployment rate increasing to 4.3% in the US at the start of this month.
Bitcoin Analysis
After a sizeable move last week, Bitcoin started this week with lethargy. We also saw last week the market rejected at the 200-day moving average (blue line).
Bullish Scenario
Over the coming days, bulls defend the current range lows may be how we begin to trend higher. And prices moving back above the 200-day moving average (blue line).
Bearish Scenario
Lack of interest here or seller control could result in further decline. We may see prices back towards the June low or lower.
💱 Flows
The buy-to-sell ratio for unique Swyftx orders is nominally >$20,000 AUD (rolling data over the last 7 days, captured at 09:00 am AEST).
📣 Upcoming Announcements
Thursday 15/08/24
- 10:30pm AEST – US Retail Sales (MoM)
- Change in the total value of sales at the retail level – The primary gauge of consumer spending, which accounts for the majority of overall economic activity.
- Expected: 0.4%
- Previous: 0.0%
- Change in the total value of sales at the retail level – The primary gauge of consumer spending, which accounts for the majority of overall economic activity.
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